UEFA Champions League Predictions & Expert Betting Tips
-
Written by
Alan Phillips
- Last Updated on March 26, 2024
We got you covered with the best sportsbooks, tips & bet predictions for matches analyzed by our experts, and we give you all our knowledge and info about UEFA Champions League.
The Best Bookies to Bet on Champions League
Advertiser Disclosure: CasinoBonusWise is supported by partnerships with trusted online casinos. While we receive compensation, our reviews remain unbiased and independent for your informed and safe online gambling experience.
Bonus up to:
$1250
Welcome Package
* New customers only. 125% match bonus based
New players only. Welcome Bonus - 125% bonus up to $1250. This bonus only applies for deposits of $30 or higher!
Bonus up to:
$1000
Welcome Package
* New customers only. 100% match bonus based
New players only. Welcome Bonus - 100% bonus up to $1000. This bonus only applies for deposits of $100 or higher!
Bonus up to:
$1000
Welcome Package
* New customers only. 100% match bonus based
New players only. Welcome Bonus - 100% bonus. This bonus only applies for deposits of $25 or higher for bonus!
Expert Predictions & Betting Tips
Our team of analysts and seasoned bettors brings a wealth of experience and a keen eye for value to our Champions League predictions.
In order to come up with the tips, they thoroughly analyze the statistics, form, team news, H2H and historical data to provide insightful and valuable predictions.
Our predictions go live daily, ensuring you have the freshest insights and odds at your fingertips. If there aren’t UCL matches being played at this time, you can check out our Bet of the Day project.
Table of Contents
Key Takeaways
- The best strategy for Champions League is to focus on goals related bet markets.
- You can get away with betting on other markets if you find value bets, where the odds offered by the bookie is higher than the probability for the outcome to happen.
- 2024/2025 UCL will feature a new format in which the Group Stage is replaced by the League Stage. This means the number of matches will increase from 125 to 189.
- CasinoBonusWise's experts analyze and provide you in advance with tips & predictions for UCL matches.
- 5 tips to consider when betting on UCL (teams are using the best lineup, teams stats analysis, home advantage is real, line shopping is a must, don't bet on your favorite team)
The Champions League Quarter-Finals Draw & Semi-Finals
On the 15th of March the draw for the quarter-finals and semi-finals were made.
Quarter-finals 2023/2024 (1st leg on the 9th and 10th of April; 2nd leg on the 16th and 17th of April)):
Arsenal vs Bayern Munich
Real Madrid vs Manchester City
Atletico Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund
PSG Barcelona
Semi-finals 2023/2024 (1st leg on the 30th of April; 2nd leg on the 7th of May):
Arsenal / Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid / Manchester City
PSG / Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid / Borussia Dortmund
The UCL final will be played on the 1st of June this year.
Want to know when other major sports events are happening? Check out our sports betting calendar.
Odds to win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League
You can bet right now on the winner of the UEFA Champions League 2023/2024 edition:
- Manchester City 2.75
- Arsenal 5.50
- Real Madrid 7.00
- FC Bayern Munich 7.50
- Paris Saint Germain 9.00
- FC Barcelona 10.50
- Atletico Madrid 12.00
- Borussia Dortmund 21.00
These odds are extracted on the 22nd of March 2024 from BetWhale.ag.
Beginner Guide: How Does the Champions League Work?
The UEFA Champions League is the pinnacle of European club football.
It starts with a group stage, featuring 32 teams divided into eight groups. Teams play each other home and away, with the top two from each group advancing to the knockout stages.
From then on, it’s a straight shootout through to the final, where legends are made. For beginners looking to bet, start with simpler markets like match winners or over/under goals.
I recommend BetWhale as my go-to sportsbook for a wide range of markets and competitive odds.
How to Read the UEFA Champions League Odds
Odds reflect the probability of an event happening. The lower the odds, the higher the likelihood of that outcome.
For example, if Team A has odds of 1.5 to win, a successful $10 bet would return $15 ($5 profit). Understanding odds is crucial for making informed bets.
How to Bet on Soccer
Betting on soccer involves choosing a market, selecting your prediction, and placing your bet with a sportsbook.
Always consider factors like team form, head-to-head records, injuries, and playing conditions. Start with simple bets and gradually explore more complex markets as you gain confidence.
Remember, betting should be enjoyable and always done responsibly.
What betting markets are popular for the Champions League?
Here are some of the most popular betting markets for UEFA Champions League:
- Match Winner (1X2): The most straightforward bet, where you predict the outcome of a match — home win (1), draw (X), or away win (2).
- Over/Under Goals: This market involves betting on the total number of goals scored in a match, usually over or under a specific threshold set by bookmakers, such as 2.5 goals.
- Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Here, you bet on whether both teams will score during the match. It’s a popular option when two offensively strong teams face off.
- Correct Score: A more challenging bet that involves predicting the exact final score of the match. The odds are higher due to the difficulty of getting it right.
- Half-Time/Full-Time (HT/FT): In this market, you predict the result at both half-time and full-time. It’s a way to get better odds on favorites by predicting the flow of the game.
- Goal Scorer Markets: These bets can be on the first goal scorer, last goal scorer, or whether a particular player will score at any time during the match.
- Handicap Betting: Bookmakers give one team a virtual advantage or disadvantage, leveling the playing field and offering better odds on favorites.
- Accumulators: Also known as accas, these bets combine multiple selections into one wager. It’s riskier, as all selections must win, but the returns can be significant.
- To Qualify/To Advance: Particularly in the knockout stages, this market allows you to bet on which team will advance to the next round, regardless of the method (regular time, extra time, or penalties).
- Futures Markets: These are long-term bets on tournament outcomes, such as which team will win the Champions League, reach the final, or which players will be top scorers
Betting Strategies for Champions League
UEFA Champions League, as other international club competitions (eg: UEFA Europa League, Conference League etc), works differently than domestic leagues and competitions. In Champions League the money prizes are huge, the teams are proud to take part in it, and try to do their best in each match.
You shouldn’t be surprised when underdogs win against big, favorite teams.
My Best Strategy
My best strategy for UCL is to always go for goal bets. When I say this, I’m not talking only about under/over 2.5 goals, don’t forget that there are plenty of goals related betting markets: first team to score, a specific team to score, exact number of goals, goals per half, number of goals scored by team, just to name a few.
If you are just starting out, I suggest you focus first on the under/over 2.5 goals and try the others goals bets once you get better at analyzing stats.
My Runner Up Strategy
The runner up strategy for me is to seek value bets (it doesn’t matter the betting market, it could be moneyline / match winner, asian handicaps / spreads, or even the number of cards).
Let me give you some recent value bets from Champions League:
- Barcelona – Napoli. After a 1-0 win for Napoli at home, they traveled to Barcelona for the 2nd leg. Barcelona is a superior team and they had bad luck in the 1st leg, even the stats were confirming that. Barcelona to win had 1.93 odds which was a value bet in my opinion.
- Atletico Madrid – Inter Milan. Same story as above, and I chose the conservative bet, Atletico 0 Asian handicap at 2.02 (if the match ended in a draw, the bet would have been pushed).
- Borussia Dortmund – PSV. Same as above, I chose Dortmund @ 2.12.
Betting on the Winner of the Competition
Another interesting strategy is to bet at the start of the competition that a certain team will win the Champions League, or reach the final.
This is mostly done just for fun, as it implies a lot of luck, and nothing based on stats and data.
You can do this with small wagers on teams that are strong, but definitely not favorites to win the competition. You will be looking for big odds (50+) and maybe you were lucky and have chosen the ugly duck that only this season becomes a swan.
Tips to Consider
#1. Teams are always trying to use the best lineup possible.
All teams are using their best players when it comes to Champions League matches, even by resting them in their national league and/or cup.
You will need to always stay up to date with their latest national match and watch out if there’s news about a possible or sudden injury involving the best players.
#2. Analyze the stats of the teams.
You don’t want your bet to be decided by a coin flip or by going with the heart (this applies when your favorite team plays). Take some time to analyze the teams stats in this season of the UCL, head to head matches of the teams, and don’t skip any info even if it seems small to you.
Don’t, I repeat, don’t take into consideration their domestic leagues matches as in most cases the opposition is weaker than in UCL.
#3. Home advantage is a real thing.
In football, home advantage is not a myth and I will explain to you why with some real life examples.
Example 1: Fans influence the outcome.
Even when there’s a big difference between the two teams, the fans can create an atmosphere that will push the home side to victory, while the away team will struggle to play. Think of the cases when teams from Eastern Europe beat big teams, that was an influencing factor.
Depending on the location and how permissive the laws are, the fans of the home team can even put pressure on the visiting team players since their arrival. Fans of teams from Eastern Europe, Russia, Greece, Italy etc, in the past resorted to actions like: waiting the visiting team at the airport, created chaos on the road from the airport to the hotel and then to the stadium, even tried to not let the players sleep at night by causing mayhem around the hotel.
Example 2: Weather and pitch conditions are different.
The home team’s players are used to the weather, the pitch conditions, and they have adapted to them. Think about a team focused on technique that goes to play in Russia on a frozen pitch, an artificial pitch, or in close to 0 degrees, and that team comes from Spain for example.
Even the altitude where the stadium is located will influence the final result of the match. If you didn’t know about that I suggest you check it out here. For 1 year, international matches couldn’t be played at more than 2.500 meters (8.200 feet), a decision that affected Bolivia, Ecuador, and Colombia.
#4. Line Shopping Is Your Friend.
Line shopping is when you try to find the best odds for the outcome you want to bet on.
Most of the bettors think that line shopping is done only by checking the odds at different sportsbooks, but there’s another way I want to share with you.
Let me give you some examples:
- I want to bet on Barcelona to win (match winner / moneyline), I also check Barcelona -0.5 because it’s the same thing and sometimes the odds are different.
- Barcelona to win or draw is the same as Barcelona +0.5.
- Barcelona 0 AH is the same as Barcelona DNB (draw no bet).
- Barcelona to have a clean sheet is the same as the other team not scoring, or total numbers for the other team 0.
#5. Don’t bet on your favorite team.
If your favorite team is playing in the Champions League, congrats, but don’t bet on them. If you bet on them to win and they lose you will be sad for their result and also for the lost money.
One thing that I like to do and I call it “half happy, half sad” is to bet against my favorite team. That way if they win I’m happy for the result, and a little sad about the lost money and vice versa – if they lose I’m sad for it, but I’m happy I won some money.
Champions League Format & Finalists
The 2023/24 season maintains the traditional format with 32 teams participating in the group stage. The competition begins with preliminary rounds, moving on to qualifying rounds, then the group stage, followed by knockout phases leading to the final.
- Group Stage: 32 teams are divided into eight groups of four, with each team playing six matches (home and away) against their group opponents.
- Knockout Stages: Consists of the Round of 16, Quarter-finals, Semi-finals, and the Final.
- Final Venue: The 2023/24 UEFA Champions League Final will be held at Wembley Stadium, London.
The UEFA Champions League, originally known as the European Cup before the 1992-93 season, has a rich history that dates back to its establishment in 1955.
It’s a prestigious tournament that allows league champions and top clubs from UEFA member associations to compete.
Real Madrid is the most successful club with 14 titles, including five consecutive wins from 1956 to 1960. A total of 23 clubs have won the competition.
Teams that win three consecutive titles or five in total earn a multiple-winner badge.
2023/24 Champions League schedule
Preliminary Rounds:
- Preliminary round semi-finals: 27 June 2023
- Preliminary round final: 30 June 2023
- First qualifying round: 11/12 and 18/19 July 2023
- Second qualifying round: 25/26 July and 1/2 August 2023
- Third qualifying round: 8/9 and 15 August 2023
- Play-offs: 22/23 and 29/30 August 2023.
Group Stage:
- Matchday 1: 19/20 September 2023
- Matchday 2: 3/4 October 2023
- Matchday 3: 24/25 October 2023
- Matchday 4: 7/8 November 2023
- Matchday 5: 28/29 November 2023
- Matchday 6: 12/13 December 2023.
Knockout Stages:
- Round of 16: 13/14/20/21 February and 5/6/12/13 March 2024
- Quarter-finals: 9/10 and 16/17 April 2024
- Semi-finals: 30 April/1 May and 7/8 May 2024
- Final: 1 June 2024.
Draw Dates
- Preliminary round: 13 June 2023
- First qualifying round: 20 June 2023
- Second qualifying round: 21 June 2023
- Third qualifying round: 24 July 2023
- Play-off round: 7 August 2023
- Group stage: 31 August 2023
- Round of 16: 18 December 2023
- Quarter-finals & semi-finals: 15 March 2024
The New 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League Format
The 2024/2025 UCL season will start with a new format that promises more action packed matches.
The main difference is the Group Stage turning into a League Stage:
- it will consist of 36 teams split in 4 seeding pots
- each team will play 2 opponents (one at home and one away) from each of the 4 pots
- all 36 teams will be ranked all together in the League Stage
- the first 8 teams will qualify for the Round of 16
- teams placed 9th to 24th will go through a playoff in order to obtain the other 8 spots in the Round of 16
- teams placed in 24th to 36th will be eliminated. They will not participate in Europa League or Conference League.
What’s the purpose of these changes?
First of all the number of matches will increase from 125 to 189, this means additional money will be generated & the prize pool will increase.
The UCL might be more spectacular and unpredictable using this format as clashes between Europe’s top club can happen from the 1st match of the League Stage.
Also, it’s important to note that the other 2 inter club competitions hosted by UEFA, Europa League and Europa Conference League, will switch to the same League Stage format (also called the Swiss Model) from the 2024/2025 season.
How UCL Teams Will Advance in 2024/2025
In the table below you can see in which round who will enter the competition:
| Teams entering in this round | Teams advancing from the previous round | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| First qualifying round (30 teams) |
|
||
| Second qualifying round (30 teams) |
Champions Path (24 teams) |
|
|
| League Path (6 teams) |
|
||
| Third qualifying round (20 teams) |
Champions Path (12 teams) |
| |
| League Path (8 teams) |
|
| |
| Play-off round (14 teams) |
Champions Path (10 teams) |
|
|
| League Path (4 teams) |
| ||
| League stage (36 teams) |
|
| |
2024/25 Champions League schedule
Qualifying & Play-offs:
- First qualifying round: 9/10 & 16/17 July 2024
- Second qualifying round: 23/24 & 30/31 July 2024
- Third qualifying round: 6/7 & 13 August 2024
- Play-off round: 20/21 & 27/8 August 2024
League Stage:
- Matchday 1: 17/19 September 2024
- Matchday 2: 1/2 October 2024
- Matchday 3: 22/23 October 2024
- Matchday 4: 5/6 November 2024
- Matchday 5: 26/27 November 2024
- Matchday 6: 10/11 December 20234
- Matchday 7: 21/22 January 2025
- Matchday 8: 29 January 2025
Knockout Stages:
- Knockout round play-offs: 11/12 & 18/19 February 2025
- Round of 16: 4/5 & 11/12 March 2025
- Quarter-finals: 8/9 and 15/16 April 2025
- Semi-finals: 29/30 April and 6/7 May 2025
- Final: 31 May 2025.
Draw Dates
- First qualifying round: 18 June 2024
- Second qualifying round: 19 June 2024
- Third qualifying round: 22 July 2024
- Play-off round: 5 August 2024
- League stage: 29 August 2024
- Knockout round play-offs: 31 January 2025
- Round of 16, Quarter-finals, Semi-finals & Final: 21 February 2025
UEFA Champions League Historical Statistics
Let’s take a look at all UCL historical statistics, from club stats to player stats.
Past Winners
Real Madrid – 14 tiles (1956, 1957, 1958, 1959, 1960, 1966, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2022)
AC Milan – 7 titles (1963, 1969, 1989, 1990, 1994, 2003, 2007)
Bayern Munich – 6 titles (1974, 1975, 1976, 2001, 2013, 2020)
Liverpool – 6 titles (1977, 1978, 1981, 1984, 2005, 2019)
Barcelona – 5 titles (1992, 2006, 2009, 2011, 2015)
Ajax Amsterdam – 4 titles (1971, 1972, 1973, 1995)
Inter Milan – 3 titles (1964, 1965, 2010)
Manchester United – 3 titles (1968, 1999, 2008)
Juventus – 2 titles (1985, 1996)
Benfica – 2 titles (1961, 1962)
Chelsea – 2 titles (2012, 2021)
Nottingham Forrest – 2 titles (1979, 1980)
Porto – 2 titles (1987, 2004)
Celtic – 1 title (1967)
Hamburger SV – 1 title (1983)
Steaua București – 1 title (1986)
Olympique de Marseille – 1 title (1993)
Borussia Dortmund – 1 title (1997)
Manchester City – 1 title (2023)
Feyenoord Rotterdam – 1 title (1970)
Aston Villa – 1 title (1982)
PSV Eindhoven – 1 title (1988)
Red Star Belgrade – 1 title (1991)
Top 10 All Time Goal Scorers (1955-2023)
1. Cristiano Ronaldo – 141 goals
2. Lionel Messi – 129 goals
3. Robert Lewandowski – 91 goals
4. Karim Benzema – 90 goals
5. Raúl González – 71 goals
6. Ruud van Nistelrooy – 60 goals
7. Andriy Shevchenko -59 goals
8. Thomas Müller – 53 goals
9. Thierry Henry – 51 goals
10. Filippo Inzaghi – 50 goals
Top 10 All Time Player Appearances (1955-2023)
1. Cristiano Ronaldo – 187 matches
2. Iker Casillas – 181 matches
3. Lionel Messi – 163 matches
4. Xavi Hernández – 157 matches
5. Karim Benzema – 152 matches
6. Ryan Giggs – 151 matches
7. Thomas Müller – 144 matches
8. Raúl González – 144 matches
9. Toni Kroos – 141 matches
10. Paolo Maldini – 139 matches
